Transcript

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity and length.

"If you haven't been in the backcountry yet this season, I'll quickly cover this and go straight to the forecast discussion, specifically their latest snowpack study. Looking at the YDTI (yodel), that's exactly what we want to see. You can see this significant pattern: soft snow on top with a huge jump in resistance right here, which is clearly going to be a bed surface. They've identified what appears to be 1mm facets right on top of that crust. The new wind-blown snow (or decomposing fragments) plus the rounded snow is sitting on PI, which is sitting on a crust. We'll see how reactive that is, but we definitely have a concerning layer we should be aware of. It's easily triggerable by humans.

They're rating it as moderate at all elevations. Regarding the avalanche problem, we're dealing with wind slab - you can read about the details, but these typically start subsiding after 24 hours, and after 48 hours they shouldn't be very reactive at all. The forecast discussion is particularly important to review, especially regarding those facets. Below last week's crust, there aren't any immediately concerning layers, so you can focus on the top 30 centimeters, which should be fairly easy to evaluate as you go.

However, 'moderate' doesn't mean you're in the clear. With a persistent weak layer, I'd definitely recommend being more cautious. Every time I've seen someone from the Pacific Northwest trigger a persistent weak layer avalanche, they always start by saying 'I had no idea that...' This is because they don't realize how much snow can be incorporated into one slab on a persistent weak grain, particularly with a bed surface like a crust. It can allow propagation over significant distances and multiple aspects - for instance, starting on an east aspect and finishing on a north aspect.

The best evidence of avalanches is other avalanches, so observations are crucial for understanding and bringing the forecast to life. Looking at the weather forecast, there's no precipitation expected, which is good - you won't have any new factors to consider. I don't expect new wind slabs to form between now and when you head out, so what you're seeing is essentially what you'll get in terms of hazard. The risk will likely decrease unless the freezing level spikes significantly.

For your day out, I'd expect more spring-like conditions, and be particularly mindful of wet loose activity on solar aspects."

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